Soccer specialists provide you with betting tips, the media publishes the latest news concerning the opponent teams and their key players, bookmakers help hundreds of betting methods. However, when you lastly place your huge wager on a sure favorite, this is the time to start praying. Sadly, the world of soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors taking part in against us. How can we reduce our betting losses? The only way to do it is through the use of money administration strategies. This article summarizes the strategies and strategies of betting cash administration and provides a statistical comparison of their efficiency primarily based on betting odds and match outcomes of top European leagues.
The most common betting cash management strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. While the primary don’t require any prior data, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the probability of a win.
Earlier than presenting the performance analysis, a brief description of the above-talked about strategies is critical:
— Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after a loss and returning back to the starting stack after a win. This strategy is the most well-liked today and promises positive profits, however requires intensive money investments.
— Row of numbers means planning a series of constant profits. Given betting odds, the punter calculates each stake in a way that will permit him to make the planned profit. In case he loses, he should increase the following stack in such a way the profit will return each the money already misplaced and the planned profits for the misplaced games. This strategy is less aggressive than Martingale however still dangerous.
— Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the best strategy within the lengthy run. Nonetheless, it requires knowing the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the scale of your funds and according to the relation between the probability of a win and the betting odds. When probability and odds are high, a high stack will be placed and vice versa.
Data and Strategies
As a way to evaluate the efficiency of each strategy, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the top European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favorite with minimal betting odds. One can easily estimate the probability of a win by dividing the typical number of home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of games in a season.
The betting odds and outcomes are taken from the 4 European top leagues enjoying within the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.
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