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Betting Tips and Money Administration in Soccer Betting

Soccer specialists provide you with betting suggestions, the media publishes the latest news about the opponent teams and their key players, bookmakers assist hundreds of betting methods. However, whenever you lastly place your large wager on a sure favorite, this is the time to start praying. Sadly, the world of soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors playing towards us. How can we lower our betting losses? The only way to do it is by utilizing cash administration strategies. This article summarizes the strategies and strategies of betting cash administration and provides a statistical comparison of their performance based on betting odds and match results of top European leagues.

The commonest betting money management strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. While the first don’t require any prior information, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the probability of a win.

Definitions

Before presenting the efficiency evaluation, a brief description of the above-mentioned strategies is critical:

— Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after a loss and returning back to the starting stack after a win. This strategy is the most well-liked immediately and promises positive profits, but requires intensive money investments.

— Row of numbers means planning a series of fixed profits. Given betting odds, the punter calculates every stake in a way that will permit him to make the planned profit. In case he loses, he should increase the subsequent stack in such a way the profit will return both the cash already lost and the deliberate profits for the misplaced games. This strategy is less aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous.

— Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the most effective strategy in the lengthy run. Nonetheless, it requires knowing the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the size of your funds and in line with the relation between the probability of a win and the betting odds. When probability and odds are high, a high stack will be placed and vice versa.

Data and Strategies

In an effort to consider the performance of every strategy, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the top European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favorite with minimal betting odds. One can simply estimate the probability of a win by dividing the average number of home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of games in a season.

The betting odds and outcomes are taken from the 4 European top leagues playing in the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.

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